Global economic study shows human creators’ future at risk from generative AI
Policy makers must safeguard creators’ rights and implement transparency rules
• Revenues at risk of loss for creators by 2028: 24% in music; 21% in audiovisual
• The market for Gen AI music and audiovisual content will rise from €3 billion now to €64 billion in 2028
• Revenues of Gen AI services in music and audiovisual projected at €9 billion in 2028, up from €0.3 billion now.
Paris – 4th December 2024 – The first ever global study measuring the economic impact of AI in the music and audiovisual sectors calculates that Generative AI will enrich tech companies while substantially jeopardising the income of human creators in the next five years.
This is one of the key findings of the, commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, representing over 5 million creators), and conducted by PMP Strategy While the revenues of Gen AI providers will see dramatic growth over the next five years, creators risk losing a large share of their current income due to AI’s substitutional impact on human-made works. Despite providing the creative fuel of the “Gen AI” content market, music and audiovisual creators will see respectively 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk of loss by 2028. This amounts to a cumulative loss of €22 billion over the 5-year period (€10 billion in music; €12 billion in audiovisual).
The study finds that the market for music and AV content generated by AI will increase exponentially in the next five years, growing from around €3 billion now to €64 billion in 2028.
The economic study assesses that, as a result of this exponential growth in the market for music and audiovisual content, the future revenues of Gen AI providers will rise to annual revenues of €4 billion in music (up from €0.1 billion in 2023) and €5 billion in audiovisual (up from €0.2 billion) by 2028. These are revenues derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators’ works, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be strongly impacted by AI. By 2028, Gen AI music is projected to account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ revenues, and around 60% of music libraries’ revenues.
The projected revenue loss will also be substantial for audiovisual creators. Translators and adaptors for dubbing and subtitling will experience the strongest impact, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could see their revenues cannibalised by 15 to 20%.
The study’s key takeaway
The study concludes: “In an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually suffer losses on two fronts: the loss of revenues due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; and replacement of their traditional revenue streams due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works”.
Mr. Rakesh Nigam, CEO, Indian Performing Rights Society said: “The CISAC report sheds critical light on the far-reaching economic impact of generative AI on creators, particularly in the music and audiovisual sectors. While AI offers immense possibilities for innovation, it also poses significant challenges to the livelihoods of songwriters, composers, and other creators who form the bedrock of the creative economy. At IPRS, we firmly believe that robust policies are essential to ensure fair compensation and safeguard the value of human creativity, which fuels the very foundation of AI-driven content. This study is a timely wake-up call for policymakers and industry stakeholders to address these challenges collaboratively and equitably."
